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Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.